Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.25
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
U3.5
Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultBayer Leverkusen to win67% · @1.25
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw87% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals84% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.18
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 preview and prediction
The match
SC Paderborn 07 travel to BayArena in the Bundesliga on Saturday 21 November (15:30 WAT) to face Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen are 5th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top half), while SC Paderborn 07 sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bayer Leverkusen's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat 1. FC Köln 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
SC Paderborn 07's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.9 for SC Paderborn 07. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Value angle: Under 3.5 goals at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bayer Leverkusen67%fair 1.49 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @6.00
SC Paderborn 0713%fair 7.97 · @10.00
3.17Expected goals
2.23Bayer Leverkusen xG
0.94SC Paderborn 07 xG
58%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.2 – 0.9 SC Paderborn 07 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Paderborn 07
Attack vs Bundesliga average
+19%
-37%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.94
0.87
Our own ratings from every Bundesliga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win
67%
1.49
1.25
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
87%
1.14
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
84%
1.18
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.18
–
Form
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WLLWLW
8 Nov
@ 1. FC Köln
2–1
W
5 Nov
vs Marseille
0–1
L
31 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
2–4
L
28 Oct
vs 1. FC Nürnberg
5–2
W
25 Oct
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
0–3
L
22 Oct
@ OFI
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Paderborn 07 – last 6
DDLWDL
7 Nov
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
D
31 Oct
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–0
D
28 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
0–1
L
24 Oct
vs Hamburger SV
1–0
W
17 Oct
@ Werder Bremen
2–2
D
10 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07.
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our pick is Bayer Leverkusen to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
On our numbers Bayer Leverkusen have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SC Paderborn 07 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at BayArena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
