Concarneau travel to Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny in the National 1 on Saturday 12 September (13:45 WAT) to face Aubagne. Aubagne are 17th with 7 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Concarneau sit 6th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aubagne's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Gobelins 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Concarneau's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Thionville Lusitanos 2–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Concarneau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.6 for Aubagne and 1.1 for Concarneau. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Concarneau to win – a 50% chance at odds of 2.00. Predicted score: Aubagne 0–1 Concarneau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aubagne27%fair 3.77 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @2.90
Concarneau50%fair 1.99 · @2.00
1.70Expected goals
0.64Aubagne xG
1.06Concarneau xG
52%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–018%
1–112%
1–012%
0–210%
1–27%
From our goals model: Aubagne 0.6 – 1.1 Concarneau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✓
50%
1.99
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
25%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.15
–
Form
Aubagne – last 6
DWLLLL
5 Sep
@ Gobelins
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
20 Aug
@ Caen
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Bastia
0–1
L
7 Aug
vs Thionville Lusitanos
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Montpellier
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Concarneau – last 6
DDWDLW
5 Sep
vs Thionville Lusitanos
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs Villefranche
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Quevilly
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Orleans
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Pontivy GSI
5–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aubagne and Concarneau.
Our pick is Concarneau to win with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Aubagne vs Concarneau?
On our numbers Aubagne have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Concarneau 50%.
How many goals will there be in Aubagne vs Concarneau?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aubagne vs Concarneau?
Our predicted score is Aubagne 0–1 Concarneau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Aubagne vs Concarneau?
Aubagne vs Concarneau (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
