Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: Thionville Lusitanos to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultConcarneau to win ✗39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.57
Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos preview and prediction
The match
Thionville Lusitanos travel to Stade Guy Piriou in the National 1 on Saturday 5 September (13:45 WAT) to face Concarneau. Concarneau are 6th with 20 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Thionville Lusitanos sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Concarneau's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Valenciennes 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Thionville Lusitanos's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Gobelins 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Thionville Lusitanos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Concarneau and 1.2 for Thionville Lusitanos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Thionville Lusitanos to win at 3.20 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Concarneau 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Concarneau39%fair 2.56 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Thionville Lusitanos37%fair 2.71 · @3.20
2.50Expected goals
1.27Concarneau xG
1.23Thionville Lusitanos xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.3 – 1.2 Thionville Lusitanos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✗
39%
2.56
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.57
–
Form
Concarneau – last 6
DWDLWW
29 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs Villefranche
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Quevilly
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Orleans
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Pontivy GSI
5–1
W
25 Jul
@ Laval
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
DWWWDW
29 Aug
vs Gobelins
1–1
D
20 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Thionville Lusitanos.
What is the prediction for Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Thionville Lusitanos 37%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
