Value bet: Amiens to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBastia to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.01
Bastia vs Amiens preview and prediction
The match
Bastia host Amiens in the National 1 on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 13:45 (WAT) at Stade Armand Cesari. Bastia are 13th with 15 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Amiens sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Bastia's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Caen 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Amiens's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Versailles 3–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Amiens arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Bastia 1–1 Amiens.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Bastia and 0.8 for Amiens. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bastia 43%, draw 23%, Amiens 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Amiens to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Bastia 1–1 Amiens. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bastia43%fair 2.33 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90
Amiens34%fair 2.96 · @3.50
1.75Expected goals
0.96Bastia xG
0.79Amiens xG
52%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Bastia 1.0 – 0.8 Amiens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Bastia vs Amiens?
On our numbers Bastia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Amiens 34%.
How many goals will there be in Bastia vs Amiens?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our predicted score is Bastia 1–1 Amiens, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia vs Amiens (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Armand Cesari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
