Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
2
Value bet: Caen to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓85% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✓10% · fair 9.72
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen preview and prediction
The match
Caen travel to Stade Marcel-Verchere in the National 1 on Saturday 5 September (13:45 WAT) to face Bourg-en-bresse 01. Bourg-en-bresse 01 are 18th with 6 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Caen sit 3rd on 22 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bourg-en-bresse 01's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Aubagne 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Caen's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Bastia 0–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Caen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 April 2026, finished Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2 Caen.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.0 for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 2.0 for Caen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Value angle: Caen to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caen or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2 Caen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bourg-en-bresse 0115%fair 6.59 · @3.30
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.20
Caen60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
3.00Expected goals
0.97Bourg-en-bresse 01 xG
2.03Caen xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.0 – 2.0 Caen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen?
Our pick is Caen or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen?
On our numbers Bourg-en-bresse 01 have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Caen 60%.
How many goals will there be in Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen?
Our predicted score is Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2 Caen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen?
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Marcel-Verchere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
