Value bet: Thionville Lusitanos to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultThionville Lusitanos to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceThionville Lusitanos or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.98
Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen preview and prediction
The match
Caen travel to Stadium Plaine in the National 1 on Friday 14 August (18:00 WAT) to face Thionville Lusitanos. Thionville Lusitanos are 11th with 16 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Caen sit 3rd on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Thionville Lusitanos's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Aubagne 3–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Caen's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Valenciennes 4–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.0 for Caen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Thionville Lusitanos or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Thionville Lusitanos to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Thionville Lusitanos 2–0 Caen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Thionville Lusitanos59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.35
Caen15%fair 6.51 · @3.75
3.04Expected goals
2.05Thionville Lusitanos xG
0.99Caen xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Thionville Lusitanos 2.0 – 1.0 Caen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thionville Lusitanos to win✓
59%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Thionville Lusitanos or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.28
Half-time result
Thionville Lusitanos ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thionville Lusitanos / FT Thionville Lusitanos✗
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.98
–
Form
Thionville Lusitanos – last 5
WDWDW
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
29 Mar
vs Beauvais
1–1
D
25 Mar
@ Blois
3–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Caen – last 6
WDWWLW
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
15 Jul
vs Gobelins
3–4
L
9 Jul
@ Rennes
2–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thionville Lusitanos and Caen.
What is the prediction for Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
On our numbers Thionville Lusitanos have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Caen 15%.
How many goals will there be in Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Our predicted score is Thionville Lusitanos 2–0 Caen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen (National 1) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium Plaine.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
