Bastia travel to Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny in the National 1 on Friday 14 August (18:00 WAT) to face Aubagne. Aubagne are 17th with 7 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Bastia sit 13th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Aubagne's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Thionville Lusitanos 0–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Bastia's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Le Puy Foot 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Aubagne and 1.2 for Bastia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aubagne 38%, draw 25%, Bastia 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Aubagne 1–1 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aubagne38%fair 2.60 · @2.35
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
Bastia36%fair 2.76 · @2.90
2.47Expected goals
1.26Aubagne xG
1.21Bastia xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Aubagne 1.3 – 1.2 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aubagne to win✗
38%
2.60
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aubagne / FT Aubagne✗
21%
4.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.43
–
Form
Aubagne – last 6
LLLLLW
7 Aug
vs Thionville Lusitanos
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Montpellier
2–3
L
1 May
vs Stade Briochin
1–2
L
24 Apr
@ Rouen
1–3
L
17 Apr
vs Orleans
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Le Puy Foot
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
LLDDDL
7 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Rodez
3–5
L
24 Apr
@ Clermont Foot
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Amiens
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Rodez
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Boulogne
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aubagne and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aubagne vs Bastia?
On our numbers Aubagne have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bastia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Aubagne vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aubagne vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Aubagne 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aubagne vs Bastia?
Aubagne vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
