Value bet: Numancia to win @ 2.40 – our chance 48% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNumancia to win ✗48% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.16
Getafe II vs Numancia preview and prediction
The match
Numancia travel to face Getafe II in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 4 October (11:00 WAT). Getafe II are 16th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Numancia sit 1st on 19 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Getafe II's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Real Ávila 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Numancia's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Guadalajara 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Numancia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.6 for Getafe II and 1.0 for Numancia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Getafe II 28%, draw 24%, Numancia 48%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Numancia to win at 2.40 – 48% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Getafe II 0–0 Numancia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Getafe II28%fair 3.56 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.75
Numancia48%fair 2.10 · @2.40
1.63Expected goals
0.64Getafe II xG
0.99Numancia xG
49%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
0–119%
1–013%
1–112%
0–210%
1–26%
From our goals model: Getafe II 0.6 – 1.0 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
48%
2.10
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.16
–
Form
Getafe II – last 6
LDLDLD
27 Sep
@ Real Ávila
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs CF Talavera
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Salamanca UDS
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Conquense
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Torrejón
0–2
L
27 Aug
@ Unión Adarve
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Numancia – last 6
WDWWWL
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–1
W
17 May
@ Poblense
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Getafe II and Numancia.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Getafe II vs Numancia?
On our numbers Getafe II have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Numancia 48%.
How many goals will there be in Getafe II vs Numancia?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Getafe II vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Getafe II 0–0 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Getafe II vs Numancia?
Getafe II vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
