Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Xerez to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultXerez to win ✗58% · @1.95
Double chanceXerez or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena preview and prediction
The match
Xerez host Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Xerez are 6th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Ciudad de Lucena sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Xerez's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Real Betis II 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ciudad de Lucena's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Don Benito 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Ciudad de Lucena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Xerez and 0.6 for Ciudad de Lucena. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xerez 58%, draw 27%, Ciudad de Lucena 15%.
Safer route: Xerez or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Xerez to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Xerez or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Xerez 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xerez58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @2.90
Ciudad de Lucena15%fair 6.57 · @3.75
2.17Expected goals
1.53Xerez xG
0.64Ciudad de Lucena xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.5 – 0.6 Ciudad de Lucena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xerez to win✗
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Xerez or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xerez / FT Xerez✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.74
–
Form
Xerez – last 6
DWLDLD
10 Oct
@ Real Betis II
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Estepona
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWWLDD
11 Oct
vs Don Benito
4–2
W
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Ciudad de Lucena.
What is the prediction for Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our pick is Xerez or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
On our numbers Xerez have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ciudad de Lucena 15%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
