Value bet: Don Benito to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCiudad de Lucena to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.55
Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito preview and prediction
The match
Don Benito travel to face Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT). Ciudad de Lucena are 3rd with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Don Benito sit 2nd on 20 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ciudad de Lucena's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Puente Genil 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Don Benito's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Estepona 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Ciudad de Lucena and 1.0 for Don Benito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ciudad de Lucena 43%, draw 24%, Don Benito 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Don Benito to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ciudad de Lucena 1–1 Don Benito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ciudad de Lucena43%fair 2.33 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.88
Don Benito33%fair 3.00 · @3.50
2.20Expected goals
1.20Ciudad de Lucena xG
1.00Don Benito xG
56%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ciudad de Lucena 1.2 – 1.0 Don Benito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ciudad de Lucena to win✓
43%
2.33
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ciudad de Lucena / FT Ciudad de Lucena✓
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.55
–
Form
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWLDDW
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
10 May
vs Dos Hermanas
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Don Benito – last 6
LWDWWW
3 Oct
@ Estepona
1–3
L
26 Sep
vs Sanluqueño
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Xerez
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Las Palmas II
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Antoniano
2–1
W
3 May
vs Diocesano
8–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ciudad de Lucena and Don Benito.
What is the prediction for Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
On our numbers Ciudad de Lucena have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Don Benito 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Our predicted score is Ciudad de Lucena 1–1 Don Benito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
