Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · SpainBadajoz vs Marbella prediction & analysis
Badajoz to win
Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Badajoz 1.6 – 0.9 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Badajoz hold the edge on home soil with a 55% chance of winning, against 23% for Marbella.
Badajoz have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Marbella have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 for Badajoz, 0.9 for Marbella). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%).
Our pick is Badajoz to win at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.81, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Badajoz to win ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Badajoz / FT Badajoz ✗ | 32% | 3.09 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 13% | 7.65 | – |
Form
Badajoz – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Sevilla Atletico | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Las Palmas II | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Betis II | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Xerez | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Tenerife II | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Jun | @ Cuarte | 1–1 | D |
Marbella – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Real Betis II | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Puente Genil | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Atlético Central | 4–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Sevilla Atletico | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sanluqueño | 2–2 | D |
| 22 May | vs Teruel | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Badajoz and Marbella.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Real Betis II | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sanluqueño | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Badajoz vs Marbella?
Our pick is Badajoz to win with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Badajoz vs Marbella?
On our numbers Badajoz have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Marbella 23%.
How many goals will there be in Badajoz vs Marbella?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Badajoz vs Marbella?
Badajoz vs Marbella (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.