Value bet: Tenerife II to win @ 3.50 – our chance 38% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTenerife II to win ✗38% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.73
Xerez vs Tenerife II preview and prediction
The match
Xerez host Tenerife II in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Xerez are 6th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Tenerife II sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Xerez's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Recreativo Huelva 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tenerife II's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Estepona 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Tenerife II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Xerez and 1.1 for Tenerife II. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xerez 36%, draw 25%, Tenerife II 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Tenerife II to win at 3.50 – 38% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.87, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Xerez 1–1 Tenerife II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xerez36%fair 2.78 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.90
Tenerife II38%fair 2.60 · @3.50
2.13Expected goals
1.04Xerez xG
1.09Tenerife II xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.0 – 1.1 Tenerife II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tenerife II to win✗
38%
2.60
3.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tenerife II / FT Tenerife II✗
20%
4.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.73
–
Form
Xerez – last 6
LDLDDD
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Estepona
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portuense
0–0
D
17 May
@ Conquense
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tenerife II – last 6
WWWLLL
27 Sep
vs Estepona
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Ciudad de Lucena
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Atlético Central
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Badajoz
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Tenerife
0–3
L
3 May
vs SS Reyes
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Tenerife II.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Xerez vs Tenerife II?
On our numbers Xerez have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tenerife II 38%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Tenerife II?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Tenerife II?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–1 Tenerife II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Tenerife II?
Xerez vs Tenerife II (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
