Value bet: Badajoz to win @ 3.60 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSevilla Atletico to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz preview and prediction
The match
Sevilla Atletico host Badajoz in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 10:30 (WAT) at Estadio Jesus Navas. Sevilla Atletico are 10th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Badajoz sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sevilla Atletico's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Atlético Central 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Badajoz's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Las Palmas II 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Sevilla Atletico and 1.0 for Badajoz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Badajoz to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Sevilla Atletico 1–0 Badajoz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sevilla Atletico43%fair 2.33 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.90
Badajoz34%fair 2.98 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.16Sevilla Atletico xG
0.97Badajoz xG
48%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sevilla Atletico 1.2 – 1.0 Badajoz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevilla Atletico to win✗
43%
2.33
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevilla Atletico / FT Sevilla Atletico✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.27
–
Form
Sevilla Atletico – last 6
LDWWDW
27 Sep
@ Atlético Central
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Sanluqueño
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Marbella
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Tamaraceite
1–0
W
10 May
vs Eldense
2–2
D
19 Apr
@ Ibiza
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Badajoz – last 6
DLWWDW
27 Sep
@ Las Palmas II
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Xerez
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Cuarte
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Cuarte
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla Atletico and Badajoz.
What is the prediction for Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
On our numbers Sevilla Atletico have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Badajoz 34%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
Our predicted score is Sevilla Atletico 1–0 Badajoz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jesus Navas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
