Value bet: Mijas Las Lagunas to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanluqueño to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas preview and prediction
The match
Sanluqueño host Mijas Las Lagunas in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Palmar. Sanluqueño are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Mijas Las Lagunas sit 7th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sanluqueño's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Don Benito 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Mijas Las Lagunas's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Tamaraceite 6–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.7 for Sanluqueño and 1.5 for Mijas Las Lagunas. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sanluqueño 44%, draw 21%, Mijas Las Lagunas 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Mijas Las Lagunas to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sanluqueño 1–1 Mijas Las Lagunas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sanluqueño44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.25
Mijas Las Lagunas35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
3.25Expected goals
1.73Sanluqueño xG
1.52Mijas Las Lagunas xG
57%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Sanluqueño 1.7 – 1.5 Mijas Las Lagunas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sanluqueño to win✗
44%
2.28
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sanluqueño / FT Sanluqueño✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Sanluqueño – last 6
LDWDWL
26 Sep
@ Don Benito
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Sevilla Atletico
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Tamaraceite
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Marbella
2–2
D
6 Mar
@ Real Murcia
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabadell
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mijas Las Lagunas – last 6
WDDLDW
27 Sep
vs Tamaraceite
6–2
W
20 Sep
@ Antoniano
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Ciudad de Lucena
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Puente Genil
0–4
L
10 May
@ Granada II
4–4
D
26 Apr
@ Huétor Tájar
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sanluqueño and Mijas Las Lagunas.
What is the prediction for Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas?
On our numbers Sanluqueño have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mijas Las Lagunas 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas?
Our predicted score is Sanluqueño 1–1 Mijas Las Lagunas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas?
Sanluqueño vs Mijas Las Lagunas (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Palmar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
