Segunda División RFEF Group 3 · SpainCastellonense vs Real Murcia II prediction & analysis
Castellonense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Castellonense to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Castellonense 1.7 – 0.8 Real Murcia II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Castellonense are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 17% for Real Murcia II.
Castellonense have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Real Murcia II have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. Castellonense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Castellonense, 0.8 for Real Murcia II). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Castellonense or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Castellonense to win at 1.91 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Castellonense to win ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Castellonense or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Castellonense ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Castellonense / FT Castellonense ✓ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.98 | – |
Form
Castellonense – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Lorca Deportiva | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cieza | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Poblense | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Ucam Murcia | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | vs Saguntino | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Crevillente | 1–0 | W |
Real Murcia II – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Peña Deportiva | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Mallorca II | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ La Nucía | 1–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Orihuela | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Jun | @ Pamplona | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Jun | vs Pamplona | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellonense and Real Murcia II.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportiva Minera | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 2 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellón II | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Castellonense | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  La Nucía | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Cieza | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 9 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Elche II | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Valencia II | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
Our pick is Castellonense or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
On our numbers Castellonense have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Real Murcia II 17%.
How many goals will there be in Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
Castellonense vs Real Murcia II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.