Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Bergantiños to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBergantiños to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceBergantiños or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.54
Bergantiños vs Ourense CF preview and prediction
The match
Bergantiños host Ourense CF in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Bergantiños are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Ourense CF sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bergantiños's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Eibar II 2–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Ourense CF's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 3–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bergantiños arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Bergantiños and 0.9 for Ourense CF. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 47%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Bergantiños to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bergantiños or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bergantiños 1–0 Ourense CF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bergantiños57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.40
Ourense CF17%fair 5.72 · @3.40
2.74Expected goals
1.82Bergantiños xG
0.92Ourense CF xG
47%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Bergantiños 1.8 – 0.9 Ourense CF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bergantiños to win✗
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Bergantiños or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Bergantiños ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bergantiños / FT Bergantiños✗
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.54
–
Form
Bergantiños – last 6
LWDWWW
24 Oct
@ Eibar II
2–3
L
18 Oct
vs Real Oviedo II
3–0
W
11 Oct
@ Arosa
2–2
D
4 Oct
vs Coruxo
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Portugalete
3–2
W
20 Sep
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ourense CF – last 6
WLLDWL
25 Oct
vs Gimnástica Torrelavega
3–0
W
17 Oct
vs Coruxo
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Atlético Astorga
0–4
L
4 Oct
vs Arosa
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Amorebieta
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Eibar II
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bergantiños and Ourense CF.
What is the prediction for Bergantiños vs Ourense CF?
Our pick is Bergantiños or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bergantiños vs Ourense CF?
On our numbers Bergantiños have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ourense CF 17%.
How many goals will there be in Bergantiños vs Ourense CF?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bergantiños vs Ourense CF?
Our predicted score is Bergantiños 1–0 Ourense CF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bergantiños vs Ourense CF?
Bergantiños vs Ourense CF (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
