Amorebieta travel to face Gernika in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 17 October (17:00 WAT). Gernika are 11th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Amorebieta sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Gernika's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Amorebieta's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Portugalete 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Gernika and 1.1 for Amorebieta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.87, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gernika 1–1 Amorebieta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gernika45%fair 2.23 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.75
Amorebieta31%fair 3.23 · @3.25
2.58Expected goals
1.44Gernika xG
1.14Amorebieta xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Gernika 1.4 – 1.1 Amorebieta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gernika to win✗
45%
2.23
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gernika / FT Gernika✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.17
–
Form
Gernika – last 6
DLDWWD
11 Oct
@ Deportivo Alavés II
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Sestao River
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Coruxo
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Llanera
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Arosa
4–0
W
6 Sep
vs Bergantiños
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Amorebieta – last 6
LWLWLD
10 Oct
vs Portugalete
1–2
L
3 Oct
@ Atlético Astorga
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Ourense CF
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Racing Santander II
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Bergantiños
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Arosa
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gernika and Amorebieta.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Gernika vs Amorebieta?
On our numbers Gernika have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Amorebieta 31%.
How many goals will there be in Gernika vs Amorebieta?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gernika vs Amorebieta?
Our predicted score is Gernika 1–1 Amorebieta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gernika vs Amorebieta?
Gernika vs Amorebieta (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
