Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
2
Value bet: Gernika to win @ 3.50 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCoruxo to win ✗38% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Coruxo vs Gernika preview and prediction
The match
Gernika travel to face Coruxo in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 27 September (16:00 WAT). Coruxo are 14th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Gernika sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Coruxo's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Portugalete 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Gernika's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Llanera 4–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Coruxo and 1.6 for Gernika. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coruxo 38%, draw 25%, Gernika 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Gernika to win at 3.50 – 37% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Coruxo 1–1 Gernika. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coruxo38%fair 2.64 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.90
Gernika37%fair 2.73 · @3.50
3.17Expected goals
1.60Coruxo xG
1.57Gernika xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Coruxo 1.6 – 1.6 Gernika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coruxo to win✗
38%
2.64
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coruxo / FT Coruxo✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.85
–
Form
Coruxo – last 6
LDWWLD
19 Sep
@ Portugalete
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Racing Santander II
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Deportivo Alavés II
2–0
W
19 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Lugo
1–2
L
17 May
@ Atlético Baleares
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gernika – last 6
WWDDDL
20 Sep
vs Llanera
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Arosa
4–0
W
6 Sep
vs Bergantiños
2–2
D
3 May
vs Deportivo Alavés II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Basconia
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs UD Logroñés
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coruxo and Gernika.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Coruxo vs Gernika?
On our numbers Coruxo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gernika 37%.
How many goals will there be in Coruxo vs Gernika?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coruxo vs Gernika?
Our predicted score is Coruxo 1–1 Gernika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Coruxo vs Gernika?
Coruxo vs Gernika (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
