Value bet: Deportivo Alavés II to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Alavés II to win ✓41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.50
Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Arosa take on Deportivo Alavés II on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Arosa are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Alavés II sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arosa's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Basconia 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Deportivo Alavés II's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Real Oviedo II 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Arosa and 1.5 for Deportivo Alavés II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score in 50% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arosa 36%, draw 23%, Deportivo Alavés II 41%.
Value angle: Deportivo Alavés II to win at 2.80 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.96, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arosa 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arosa36%fair 2.76 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.30
Deportivo Alavés II41%fair 2.44 · @2.80
2.98Expected goals
1.44Arosa xG
1.55Deportivo Alavés II xG
50%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Arosa 1.4 – 1.5 Deportivo Alavés II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Alavés II to win✓
41%
2.44
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Alavés II / FT Deportivo Alavés II✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.50
–
Form
Arosa – last 6
DLDWWD
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Estradense
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés II – last 6
WWLLDW
20 Sep
vs Real Oviedo II
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Llanera
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Coruxo
0–2
L
17 May
vs Real Jaén
0–1
L
3 May
@ Gernika
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Tudelano
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arosa and Deportivo Alavés II.
What is the prediction for Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II?
On our numbers Arosa have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Alavés II 41%.
How many goals will there be in Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Our predicted score is Arosa 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Arosa vs Deportivo Alavés II (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
