Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 54% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +84%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗54% · @3.40
Double chanceOurense CF or draw ✓81% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗12% · fair 8.15
Ourense CF vs Basconia preview and prediction
The match
Basconia travel to Estadio de O Couto in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 6 September (16:00 WAT) to face Ourense CF. Ourense CF are 10th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Basconia sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ourense CF's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Lugo 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Basconia's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Racing Santander II 3–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Basconia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Ourense CF and 1.2 for Basconia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.40 – 54% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ourense CF or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ourense CF 1–1 Basconia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ourense CF27%fair 3.68 · @2.05
Draw54%fair 1.85 · @3.40
Basconia19%fair 5.32 · @3.00
2.67Expected goals
1.43Ourense CF xG
1.25Basconia xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 1.4 – 1.2 Basconia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
54%
1.85
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Ourense CF or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ourense CF / FT Ourense CF✓
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
12%
8.15
–
Form
Ourense CF – last 6
LLDLDL
21 Aug
@ Lugo
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Pontevedra
1–2
L
14 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Real Avilés
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Ponferradina
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Barakaldo
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Basconia – last 6
DLWDWW
15 Aug
@ Racing Santander II
3–3
D
8 Aug
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
1–2
L
3 May
vs Ejea
5–1
W
26 Apr
vs Gernika
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Mutilvera
4–0
W
5 Apr
@ SD Logroñés
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Basconia.
What is the prediction for Ourense CF vs Basconia?
Our pick is Ourense CF or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Basconia?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Basconia 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Basconia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Basconia?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 1–1 Basconia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Basconia?
Ourense CF vs Basconia (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
