Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 57% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +82%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓57% · @3.20
Double chanceGernika or draw ✓81% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.62
Gernika vs Bergantiños preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Gernika take on Bergantiños on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Gernika are 11th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Bergantiños sit 4th on 18 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Gernika's last 4: DDLD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Alavés II 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bergantiños's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Sámano 5–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bergantiños arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Gernika and 1.1 for Bergantiños. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 45%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 57% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gernika or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gernika 1–1 Bergantiños. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gernika24%fair 4.13 · @2.25
Draw57%fair 1.76 · @3.20
Bergantiños19%fair 5.26 · @2.88
2.36Expected goals
1.23Gernika xG
1.12Bergantiños xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Gernika 1.2 – 1.1 Bergantiños expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
57%
1.76
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Gernika or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gernika / FT Gernika✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.62
–
Form
Gernika – last 4
DDLD
3 May
vs Deportivo Alavés II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Basconia
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs UD Logroñés
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Sestao River
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Bergantiños – last 6
WLWLDW
3 May
@ Sámano
5–0
W
26 Apr
vs UD Ourense
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Real Valladolid II
4–3
W
29 Mar
vs Coruxo
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Salamanca UDS
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Lealtad
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gernika and Bergantiños.
What is the prediction for Gernika vs Bergantiños?
Our pick is Gernika or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gernika vs Bergantiños?
On our numbers Gernika have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 57% and Bergantiños 19%.
How many goals will there be in Gernika vs Bergantiños?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gernika vs Bergantiños?
Our predicted score is Gernika 1–1 Bergantiños, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Gernika vs Bergantiños?
Gernika vs Bergantiños (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
