Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 55% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +75%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓55% · @3.20
Double chanceAmorebieta or draw ✓82% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.61
Amorebieta vs Arosa preview and prediction
The match
Amorebieta host Arosa in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Campo Municipal de Urritxe. Amorebieta are 7th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Arosa sit 15th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Amorebieta's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Athletic Club II 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arosa's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Pontevedra 3–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Amorebieta and 1.1 for Arosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 47%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Amorebieta 27%, draw 55%, Arosa 18%.
Safer route: Amorebieta or draw (82%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 55% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Amorebieta or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Amorebieta 1–1 Arosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Amorebieta27%fair 3.73 · @2.10
Draw55%fair 1.83 · @3.20
Arosa18%fair 5.41 · @3.10
2.32Expected goals
1.25Amorebieta xG
1.08Arosa xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Amorebieta 1.2 – 1.1 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
55%
1.83
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Amorebieta or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Amorebieta / FT Amorebieta✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.61
–
Form
Amorebieta – last 6
LWDWWD
8 Aug
vs Athletic Club II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Mutilvera
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sestao River
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Deportivo Alavés II
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Eibar II
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Tudelano
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
WWDDWW
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Estradense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Villalbés
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Somozas
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Coruña
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amorebieta and Arosa.
Our pick is Amorebieta or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Amorebieta vs Arosa?
On our numbers Amorebieta have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Arosa 18%.
How many goals will there be in Amorebieta vs Arosa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amorebieta vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Amorebieta 1–1 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Amorebieta vs Arosa?
Amorebieta vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Municipal de Urritxe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
