Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Alcorcon to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcorcon to win ✗62% · @1.83
Double chanceAlcorcon or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.15
Alcorcon vs Ibiza preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 2 sees Alcorcon take on Ibiza on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo. Alcorcon are 5th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Ibiza sit 6th on 18 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alcorcon's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Huesca 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Ibiza's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Águilas 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Alcorcon and 0.8 for Ibiza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alcorcon 62%, draw 24%, Ibiza 14%.
Safer route: Alcorcon or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Alcorcon to win at 1.83 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alcorcon or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alcorcon 1–0 Ibiza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcorcon62%fair 1.62 · @1.83
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.10
Ibiza14%fair 7.02 · @3.90
2.56Expected goals
1.81Alcorcon xG
0.75Ibiza xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.8 – 0.8 Ibiza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✗
62%
1.62
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Alcorcon or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Alcorcon ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.15
–
Form
Alcorcon – last 6
DLWWWD
16 Oct
vs Huesca
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ Teruel
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs Juventud Torremolinos
5–0
W
27 Sep
@ Real Madrid II
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Gimnastic
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ Antequera
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ibiza – last 6
WDWLLW
17 Oct
@ Águilas
2–1
W
9 Oct
vs Real Madrid II
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Villarreal II
1–0
W
25 Sep
vs Zaragoza
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Real Jaén
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Sant Andreu
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Ibiza.
Our pick is Alcorcon or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Ibiza?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ibiza 14%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Ibiza?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Ibiza?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–0 Ibiza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Ibiza?
Alcorcon vs Ibiza (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
