Primera División RFEF Group 2 · SpainAtlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén prediction & analysis
Atlético Madrid II or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Atlético Madrid II to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atlético Madrid II 2.2 – 0.9 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atlético Madrid II are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 12% for Real Jaén.
Atlético Madrid II have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Real Jaén have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. Real Jaén come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.2 for Atlético Madrid II, 0.9 for Real Jaén). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Atlético Madrid II or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Atlético Madrid II to win at 1.75 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atlético Madrid II to win ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Atlético Madrid II or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Half-time result | Atlético Madrid II ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atlético Madrid II / FT Atlético Madrid II ✗ | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.40 | – |
Form
Atlético Madrid II – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Gimnastic | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Zaragoza | 4–4 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Real Madrid II | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Villarreal II | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Huesca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Real Murcia | 4–0 | W |
Real Jaén – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Rayo Majadahonda | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal II | 3–3 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Hércules | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Antequera | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Ibiza | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Teruel | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Madrid II and Real Jaén.
Primera División RFEF Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaragoza | 11 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Villarreal II | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Murcia | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 |  Real Jaén | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Alcorcon | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ibiza | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Hércules | 11 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 |  FC Cartagena | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Madrid II | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Huesca | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 |  Gimnastic | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Antequera | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Algeciras | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Sant Andreu | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atlético Madrid II | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 |  Europa Fc | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 |  Águilas | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juventud Torremolinos | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 |  Rayo Majadahonda | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 |  Teruel | 11 | -13 | 7 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
Our pick is Atlético Madrid II or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
On our numbers Atlético Madrid II have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Jaén 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.