Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Avilés to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceReal Avilés or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.06
Real Avilés vs UD Ourense preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Real Avilés take on UD Ourense on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 17:15 (WAT) at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta. Real Avilés are 4th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top four), while UD Ourense sit 20th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Real Avilés's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Ponferradina 2–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
UD Ourense's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Barakaldo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Real Avilés and 0.8 for UD Ourense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Avilés 57%, draw 23%, UD Ourense 20%.
Safer route: Real Avilés or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Real Avilés or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Real Avilés 1–0 UD Ourense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Avilés57%fair 1.75 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.00
UD Ourense20%fair 4.99 · @3.75
2.43Expected goals
1.61Real Avilés xG
0.82UD Ourense xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Real Avilés 1.6 – 0.8 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Avilés to win✓
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Real Avilés or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Avilés / FT Real Avilés✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.06
–
Form
Real Avilés – last 6
WLDDWL
11 Oct
@ Ponferradina
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Lugo
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Barakaldo
3–3
D
19 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Athletic Club II
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
WDDLLL
10 Oct
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Cacereño
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Avilés and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Real Avilés or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Real Avilés have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and UD Ourense 20%.
How many goals will there be in Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Real Avilés 1–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Real Avilés vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
