Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 2.38 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMérida AD to win ✓46% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
Mérida AD travel to Estadio Municipal de Fadura in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 18 October (11:00 WAT) to face Arenas Getxo. Arenas Getxo are 19th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arenas Getxo's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Cultural Leonesa 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Mérida AD's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Pontevedra 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Mérida AD arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 April 2026, finished Arenas Getxo 2–0 Mérida AD.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.5 for Arenas Getxo and 1.8 for Mérida AD. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arenas Getxo 32%, draw 22%, Mérida AD 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Mérida AD to win at 2.38 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arenas Getxo32%fair 3.13 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.00
Mérida AD46%fair 2.19 · @2.38
3.29Expected goals
1.48Arenas Getxo xG
1.81Mérida AD xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
0–17%
2–27%
0–26%
From our goals model: Arenas Getxo 1.5 – 1.8 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenas Getxo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mérida AD 46%.
How many goals will there be in Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
