Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPontevedra to win ✗39% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.65
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
Pontevedra host Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Pontevedra are 3rd with 18 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pontevedra's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Racing Ferrol 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mérida AD's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Cacereño 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Pontevedra and 1.5 for Mérida AD. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pontevedra 39%, draw 25%, Mérida AD 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Mérida AD to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pontevedra 1–1 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pontevedra39%fair 2.58 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Mérida AD36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
3.00Expected goals
1.53Pontevedra xG
1.47Mérida AD xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Pontevedra 1.5 – 1.5 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontevedra to win✗
39%
2.58
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontevedra / FT Pontevedra✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.65
–
Form
Pontevedra – last 6
LDDLWW
3 Oct
@ Racing Ferrol
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Ponferradina
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ UD Logroñés
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
WLLLLW
4 Oct
vs Cacereño
2–0
W
27 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
3–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontevedra and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Pontevedra have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mérida AD 36%.
How many goals will there be in Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Pontevedra 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
