Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win ✗58% · @1.75
Double chancePonferradina or draw ✗79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.28
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Ponferradina take on Real Avilés on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT). Ponferradina are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Real Avilés sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Mirandes 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Avilés's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Lugo 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Ponferradina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 August 2026, finished Ponferradina 1–1 Real Avilés.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Ponferradina and 0.7 for Real Avilés. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ponferradina 58%, draw 21%, Real Avilés 21%.
Safer route: Ponferradina or draw (79%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ponferradina or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Ponferradina 1–0 Real Avilés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponferradina58%fair 1.72 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.20
Real Avilés21%fair 4.81 · @4.00
2.25Expected goals
1.51Ponferradina xG
0.74Real Avilés xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.5 – 0.7 Real Avilés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Our pick is Ponferradina or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Avilés 21%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Real Avilés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
