Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Ferrol to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Ferrol to win ✓63% · @1.91
Double chanceRacing Ferrol or draw ✓87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.29
Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra preview and prediction
The match
Racing Ferrol host Pontevedra in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal da Malata. Racing Ferrol are 6th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Pontevedra sit 3rd on 18 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Racing Ferrol's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Lugo 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pontevedra's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Ponferradina 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Racing Ferrol and 0.6 for Pontevedra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Ferrol 63%, draw 24%, Pontevedra 13%.
Safer route: Racing Ferrol or draw (87%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Racing Ferrol to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Racing Ferrol or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Racing Ferrol 1–0 Pontevedra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Ferrol63%fair 1.58 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.10
Pontevedra13%fair 7.88 · @3.50
2.40Expected goals
1.75Racing Ferrol xG
0.65Pontevedra xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Racing Ferrol 1.8 – 0.6 Pontevedra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Ferrol to win✓
63%
1.58
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Racing Ferrol or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Racing Ferrol ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Ferrol / FT Racing Ferrol✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.29
–
Form
Racing Ferrol – last 6
LWWLDD
26 Sep
@ Lugo
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Unión
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Extremadura 1924
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Pontevedra – last 6
DDLWWL
27 Sep
vs Ponferradina
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ UD Logroñés
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
19 Aug
@ Coruxo
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Ferrol and Pontevedra.
What is the prediction for Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra?
Our pick is Racing Ferrol or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra?
On our numbers Racing Ferrol have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pontevedra 13%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra?
Our predicted score is Racing Ferrol 1–0 Pontevedra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra?
Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal da Malata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
