Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarakaldo to win ✗63% · @1.44
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.77
Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo preview and prediction
The match
Barakaldo host Arenas Getxo in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Campo de Lasesarre. Barakaldo are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Arenas Getxo sit 19th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Barakaldo's last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with Real Avilés 3–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Arenas Getxo's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Athletic Club II 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Barakaldo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Arenas Getxo 2–1 Barakaldo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Barakaldo and 0.9 for Arenas Getxo. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Barakaldo to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Barakaldo 2–0 Arenas Getxo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barakaldo63%fair 1.58 · @1.44
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @4.00
Arenas Getxo14%fair 7.37 · @5.50
2.90Expected goals
2.04Barakaldo xG
0.86Arenas Getxo xG
51%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 2.0 – 0.9 Arenas Getxo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
Our pick is Barakaldo to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arenas Getxo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 2–0 Arenas Getxo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
