Ponferradina host Mirandes in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Ponferradina are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Mirandes sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Pontevedra 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mirandes's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Unionistas de Salamanca 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Ponferradina and 1.1 for Mirandes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Ponferradina 1–1 Mirandes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponferradina37%fair 2.69 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.00
Mirandes38%fair 2.60 · @2.50
2.20Expected goals
1.09Ponferradina xG
1.11Mirandes xG
55%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.1 – 1.1 Mirandes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirandes to win✗
38%
2.60
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirandes / FT Mirandes✗
20%
4.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.11
–
Form
Ponferradina – last 6
DWLDWD
27 Sep
@ Pontevedra
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Mérida AD
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mirandes – last 6
WDWWLL
27 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Real Unión
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Mérida AD
4–3
W
5 Sep
vs UD Ourense
2–0
W
28 Aug
@ Cacereño
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ UD Logroñés
0–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Mirandes.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mirandes 38%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–1 Mirandes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Ponferradina vs Mirandes (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
