Value bet: Cacereño to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMérida AD to win ✓38% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.67
Mérida AD vs Cacereño preview and prediction
The match
Cacereño travel to Estadio Romano Jose Fouto in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 4 October (17:45 WAT) to face Mérida AD. Mérida AD are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Cacereño sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mérida AD's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to UD Logroñés 3–5 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Cacereño's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with UD Ourense 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cacereño arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Mérida AD 1–0 Cacereño.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Mérida AD and 1.2 for Cacereño. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mérida AD 38%, draw 24%, Cacereño 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Cacereño to win at 3.20 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mérida AD38%fair 2.61 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.00
Cacereño37%fair 2.68 · @3.20
2.50Expected goals
1.26Mérida AD xG
1.24Cacereño xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.3 – 1.2 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cacereño 37%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Mérida AD vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
