Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLugo to win ✓48% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.04
Lugo vs Racing Ferrol preview and prediction
The match
Lugo host Racing Ferrol in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estadio Anxo Carro. Lugo are 1st with 28 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Racing Ferrol sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Lugo's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Zamora 2–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Racing Ferrol's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Barakaldo 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lugo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Lugo and 0.9 for Racing Ferrol. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugo 48%, draw 23%, Racing Ferrol 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lugo 1–0 Racing Ferrol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugo48%fair 2.10 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Racing Ferrol30%fair 3.34 · @3.20
2.19Expected goals
1.27Lugo xG
0.92Racing Ferrol xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.3 – 0.9 Racing Ferrol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
48%
2.10
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.04
–
Form
Lugo – last 6
WWDWWW
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs CD Coria
1–0
W
4 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
21 Aug
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Coruxo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Racing Ferrol – last 6
WWLDDD
19 Sep
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Unión
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Extremadura 1924
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Racing Ferrol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
On our numbers Lugo have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Racing Ferrol 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–0 Racing Ferrol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
Lugo vs Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
