Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Mirandes to win @ 1.67 – our chance 66% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirandes to win ✓66% · @1.67
Double chanceMirandes or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.15
Mirandes vs UD Ourense preview and prediction
The match
Mirandes host UD Ourense in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Anduva. Mirandes are 5th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while UD Ourense sit 20th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mirandes's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Cacereño 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Ourense's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Ponferradina 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.4 for Mirandes and 0.4 for UD Ourense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirandes 66%, draw 20%, UD Ourense 14%.
Safer route: Mirandes or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Mirandes to win at 1.67 – 66% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mirandes 1–0 UD Ourense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirandes66%fair 1.51 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.50
UD Ourense14%fair 7.11 · @4.33
1.73Expected goals
1.36Mirandes xG
0.37UD Ourense xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–018%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mirandes 1.4 – 0.4 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirandes to win✓
66%
1.51
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Mirandes or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirandes / FT Mirandes✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.15
–
Form
Mirandes – last 6
LLWDWW
28 Aug
@ Cacereño
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ UD Logroñés
0–4
L
19 Aug
@ La Calzada
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Real Madrid II
0–0
D
13 Aug
@ Atlético Madrid II
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Osasuna II
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
LWWDWL
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ Bergantiños
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirandes and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Mirandes have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and UD Ourense 14%.
How many goals will there be in Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Mirandes 1–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Mirandes vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Anduva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
