Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 55% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +76%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗55% · @3.20
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✗83% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.80
CD Coria vs Barakaldo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees CD Coria take on Barakaldo on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT). CD Coria are 17th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Barakaldo sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
CD Coria's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Real Unión 1–4 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barakaldo's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Cultural Leonesa 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
CD Coria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for CD Coria and 1.3 for Barakaldo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Coria 17%, draw 55%, Barakaldo 28%.
Safer route: Barakaldo or draw (83%) at 1.28.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 55% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Barakaldo or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: CD Coria 1–1 Barakaldo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Coria17%fair 5.87 · @3.40
Draw55%fair 1.82 · @3.20
Barakaldo28%fair 3.56 · @2.05
2.46Expected goals
1.11CD Coria xG
1.34Barakaldo xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%
From our goals model: CD Coria 1.1 – 1.3 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
55%
1.82
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.80
–
Form
CD Coria – last 6
LDWLWW
30 Aug
@ Real Unión
1–4
L
14 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–2
D
11 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
2–0
W
29 Jul
@ Valladolid
1–4
L
31 May
@ Real Oviedo II
1–0
W
24 May
vs Real Oviedo II
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
DLWLLW
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Real Madrid II
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Coria and Barakaldo.
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers CD Coria have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Barakaldo 28%.
How many goals will there be in CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is CD Coria 1–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
CD Coria vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
