Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Burgos to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurgos to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.62
Burgos vs Eldense preview and prediction
The match
Burgos host Eldense in the Segunda División on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Municipal El Plantio. Burgos are 3rd with 24 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Eldense sit 15th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Burgos's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Las Palmas 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Eldense's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Eibar 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Burgos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Burgos and 0.7 for Eldense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burgos 61%, draw 24%, Eldense 15%.
Safer route: Burgos or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Burgos to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Burgos or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Burgos 1–0 Eldense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burgos61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Eldense15%fair 6.48 · @4.00
2.42Expected goals
1.70Burgos xG
0.72Eldense xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Burgos 1.7 – 0.7 Eldense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Burgos or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos✓
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.62
–
Form
Burgos – last 6
WWDDLW
20 Sep
@ Las Palmas
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs AD Ceuta FC
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Oviedo
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Real Sociedad II
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Eldense – last 6
LWDLDL
19 Sep
vs Eibar
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Sporting Gijon
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Mallorca
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Leganes
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Cadiz
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Almeria
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and Eldense.
Our pick is Burgos or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Burgos vs Eldense?
On our numbers Burgos have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Eldense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs Eldense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs Eldense?
Our predicted score is Burgos 1–0 Eldense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs Eldense?
Burgos vs Eldense (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal El Plantio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
