Value bet: Celta de Vigo II to win @ 3.35 – our chance 42% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCelta de Vigo II to win ✓42% · @3.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.38
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II preview and prediction
The match
AD Ceuta FC host Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. AD Ceuta FC are 22nd with 5 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Celta de Vigo II sit 16th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Mallorca 0–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Celta de Vigo II's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Castellón 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Celta de Vigo II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.6 for Celta de Vigo II. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Ceuta FC 35%, draw 23%, Celta de Vigo II 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Celta de Vigo II to win at 3.35 – 42% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Celta de Vigo II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Ceuta FC35%fair 2.83 · @2.08
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Celta de Vigo II42%fair 2.39 · @3.35
3.06Expected goals
1.45AD Ceuta FC xG
1.60Celta de Vigo II xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 1.5 – 1.6 Celta de Vigo II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta de Vigo II to win✓
42%
2.39
3.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta de Vigo II / FT Celta de Vigo II✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.38
–
Form
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
LLLWWL
30 Aug
@ Mallorca
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Las Palmas
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ FC Andorra
1–5
L
7 Aug
vs Malaga
2–1
W
29 Jul
@ Cadiz
3–1
W
26 Jul
@ Sevilla
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo II – last 6
LWDWWD
31 Aug
vs Castellón
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs FC Andorra
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Cadiz
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Vizela
1–0
W
20 Jun
vs Ponferradina
4–1
W
13 Jun
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Ceuta FC and Celta de Vigo II.
What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Celta de Vigo II 42%.
How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Celta de Vigo II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II?
AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
