Value bet: Girona to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGirona to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceGirona or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.55
Girona vs Las Palmas preview and prediction
The match
Girona host Las Palmas in the Segunda División on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. Girona are 8th with 21 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Las Palmas sit 10th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Girona's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Cordoba 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Las Palmas's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat AD Ceuta FC 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Las Palmas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Girona and 0.8 for Las Palmas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Girona 62%, draw 23%, Las Palmas 15%.
Safer route: Girona or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Girona to win at 1.70 – 62% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Girona 1–0 Las Palmas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Girona62%fair 1.60 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.60
Las Palmas15%fair 6.81 · @4.90
2.64Expected goals
1.86Girona xG
0.78Las Palmas xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Girona 1.9 – 0.8 Las Palmas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Girona to win✓
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Girona or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Half-time result
Girona ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Girona / FT Girona✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.55
–
Form
Girona – last 6
LDDDLD
21 Aug
@ Cordoba
1–2
L
16 Aug
vs Leganes
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Gimnastic
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Sabadell
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Arsenal
1–4
L
29 Jul
vs Castellón
3–3
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Las Palmas – last 6
WWLWLD
22 Aug
@ AD Ceuta FC
2–0
W
16 Aug
vs Albacete
2–1
W
31 Jul
vs NEOM
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs União de Leiria
3–2
W
25 Jul
vs Al-Ittihad FC
1–2
L
22 Jul
@ Orlando Pirates
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Girona and Las Palmas.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Girona vs Las Palmas?
On our numbers Girona have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Las Palmas 15%.
How many goals will there be in Girona vs Las Palmas?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our predicted score is Girona 1–0 Las Palmas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Girona vs Las Palmas?
Girona vs Las Palmas (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
