Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.35Odds
2
Value bet: Las Palmas to win @ 2.34 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Palmas to win ✓51% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.91
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas preview and prediction
The match
AD Ceuta FC host Las Palmas in the Segunda División on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. AD Ceuta FC are 22nd with 5 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Las Palmas sit 10th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to FC Andorra 1–5 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Las Palmas's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Albacete 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
AD Ceuta FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Las Palmas 4–0 AD Ceuta FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.5 for AD Ceuta FC and 2.1 for Las Palmas. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Ceuta FC 26%, draw 23%, Las Palmas 51%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Las Palmas to win at 2.34 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.28, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Las Palmas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Ceuta FC26%fair 3.82 · @3.15
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Las Palmas51%fair 1.98 · @2.34
3.53Expected goals
1.46AD Ceuta FC xG
2.06Las Palmas xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–19%
2–27%
2–16%
1–36%
0–26%
From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 1.5 – 2.1 Las Palmas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Las Palmas 51%.
How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Las Palmas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
