III Liga Group 2 · PolandLuzino vs Noteć Czarnków prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Luzino 2.4 – 1.1 Noteć Czarnków expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Luzino are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Noteć Czarnków.
Luzino have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Noteć Czarnków have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.4 for Luzino, 1.1 for Noteć Czarnków). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.51.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Luzino to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| Double chance | Luzino or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Luzino ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Luzino / FT Luzino ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.45 | – |
Form
Luzino – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Unia Swarzędz | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Grom Nowy Staw | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Gedania Gdansk | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Wisla Plock | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Lipno Stęszew | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Stargard Szczeciński | 1–2 | L |
Noteć Czarnków – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Polonia Środa | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Lech Poznań II | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Kluczevia Stargard | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Wda Świecie | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Elana Toruń | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Aug | @ Kalisz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luzino and Noteć Czarnków.
III Liga Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 16 | +22 | 37 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 16 | +4 | 30 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 16 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 7 |  Unia Swarzędz | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 12 |  Gedania Gdansk | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 |  Flota Świnoujście | 16 | -13 | 18 |
| 16 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 |  Victoria Września | 16 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 16 | -22 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków?
On our numbers Luzino have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Noteć Czarnków 15%.
How many goals will there be in Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków?
Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.