Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurnley to win ✗68% · @1.43
Double chanceBurnley or draw ✓86% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.49
Burnley vs Notts County preview and prediction
The match
Burnley host Notts County in the League Cup on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Turf Moor.
Form guide
Burnley's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Torino 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Notts County's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Walsall 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Notts County arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Burnley and 0.8 for Notts County. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burnley 68%, draw 18%, Notts County 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Burnley 2–0 Notts County. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley68%fair 1.48 · @1.43
Draw18%fair 5.53 · @4.35
Notts County14%fair 6.99 · @7.10
2.94Expected goals
2.11Burnley xG
0.83Notts County xG
51%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Burnley 2.1 – 0.8 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✗
68%
1.48
1.43
Double chance
Burnley or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Half-time result
Burnley ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✗
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.49
–
Form
Burnley – last 6
LDLLDL
2 Aug
vs Torino
0–1
L
29 Jul
vs Espanyol
2–2
D
26 Jul
@ Ajax
1–2
L
16 Jul
@ Real Salt Lake
1–4
L
12 Jul
@ Columbus Crew
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ FC Cincinnati
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Notts County – last 6
DLLLWW
1 Aug
@ Walsall
0–0
D
18 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
0–2
L
14 Jul
@ Randers FC
1–3
L
11 Jul
@ Viborg
0–2
L
4 Jul
@ Alfreton Town
5–0
W
25 May
vs Salford City
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Notts County.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Notts County?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Burnley vs Notts County?
On our numbers Burnley have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Notts County 14%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Notts County?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Notts County?
Our predicted score is Burnley 2–0 Notts County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Notts County?
Burnley vs Notts County (League Cup) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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