AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County preview and prediction
The match
AFC Wimbledon host Newport County in the League Cup on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Form guide
AFC Wimbledon's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to QPR 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Newport County's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to AS Roma 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0.9 for Newport County. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AFC Wimbledon 64%, draw 22%, Newport County 15%.
Safer route: AFC Wimbledon or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Newport County. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AFC Wimbledon64%fair 1.57 · @1.66
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.85
Newport County15%fair 6.74 · @4.80
2.88Expected goals
2.01AFC Wimbledon xG
0.87Newport County xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: AFC Wimbledon 2.0 – 0.9 Newport County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AFC Wimbledon to win✗
64%
1.57
1.66 ▲
Double chance
AFC Wimbledon or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
AFC Wimbledon ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AFC Wimbledon / FT AFC Wimbledon✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.78
–
Form
AFC Wimbledon – last 6
LLWDWL
1 Aug
vs QPR
2–3
L
28 Jul
@ Wealdstone
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Charlton
2–0
W
22 Jul
vs Norwich
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Sutton Utd
2–1
W
15 Apr
vs Stockport County
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newport County – last 6
LWLDLW
4 Aug
vs AS Roma
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
2–1
W
28 Jul
vs Reading
0–4
L
25 Jul
@ Bath City
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Gloucester City
1–2
L
8 Jul
@ Newport City
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Wimbledon and Newport County.
What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
On our numbers AFC Wimbledon have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Newport County 15%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Our predicted score is AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Newport County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County (League Cup) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cambridge United2
Barnet1
QPR1
Millwall1
Barnsley1
Wigan1
Bristol Rovers0
Peterborough1
Bromley1
Reading1
Burnley1
Notts County1
Burton Albion1
Blackburn2
Cardiff3
Swindon Town2