Value bet: Exeter City to win @ 2.50 – our chance 42% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultExeter City to win ✓42% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.77
Exeter City vs Crewe preview and prediction
The match
The League Two sees Exeter City take on Crewe on Tuesday 20 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at St James Park. Exeter City are 12th with 19 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Crewe sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Exeter City's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Colchester 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Crewe's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Rochdale 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Crewe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Exeter City and 0.7 for Crewe. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Exeter City 42%, draw 23%, Crewe 34%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Exeter City to win at 2.50 – 42% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.83, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Exeter City 0–0 Crewe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Exeter City42%fair 2.36 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Crewe34%fair 2.93 · @2.80
1.64Expected goals
0.89Exeter City xG
0.75Crewe xG
45%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Exeter City 0.9 – 0.7 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Exeter City to win✓
42%
2.36
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.77
–
Form
Exeter City – last 6
DWDWLD
17 Oct
@ Colchester
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Shrewsbury
1–0
W
6 Oct
vs Oxford United
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Rotherham
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Bristol Rovers
0–1
L
22 Sep
@ Cheltenham
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 6
WWDWDW
17 Oct
vs Rochdale
3–2
W
10 Oct
@ Swindon Town
1–0
W
6 Oct
@ Blackpool
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Bristol Rovers
3–1
W
26 Sep
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
22 Sep
vs Aston Villa U21
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Exeter City and Crewe.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Exeter City vs Crewe?
On our numbers Exeter City have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Crewe 34%.
How many goals will there be in Exeter City vs Crewe?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Exeter City vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Exeter City 0–0 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Exeter City vs Crewe?
Exeter City vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St James Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
