League Two · England · Sixfields StadiumNorthampton vs Newport County prediction & analysis
Northampton or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Northampton to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Northampton 2.0 – 0.9 Newport County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Northampton are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 13% for Newport County.
Northampton have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Newport County have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.0 for Northampton, 0.9 for Newport County). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Northampton or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Northampton to win at 1.75 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Northampton to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Northampton or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Northampton ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Northampton / FT Northampton ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.77 | – |
Form
Northampton – last 6
| 1 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Gillingham | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Crewe | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Aug | vs Brighton U21 | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Swindon Town | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Leicester | 0–1 | L |
Newport County – last 6
| 1 Sep | @ Salford City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Tranmere | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Bristol Rovers | 3–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Rochdale | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ AFC Wimbledon | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Aug | vs AS Roma | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Northampton and Newport County.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Northampton vs Newport County?
Our pick is Northampton or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Northampton vs Newport County?
On our numbers Northampton have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Newport County 13%.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Newport County?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Northampton vs Newport County?
Northampton vs Newport County (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.