Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
1
Value bet: Millwall to win @ 2.40 – our chance 44% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillwall to win ✗44% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Millwall vs Swansea preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Millwall take on Swansea on Tuesday 13 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at The Den. Millwall are 16th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Swansea sit 6th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Millwall's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Preston 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Swansea's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Norwich 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Swansea arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Millwall and 1.4 for Swansea. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Millwall 44%, draw 22%, Swansea 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Millwall to win at 2.40 – 44% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Millwall 1–1 Swansea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall44%fair 2.25 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.30
Swansea34%fair 2.96 · @2.75
2.94Expected goals
1.59Millwall xG
1.35Swansea xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.6 – 1.4 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✗
44%
2.25
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millwall / FT Millwall✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.09
–
Form
Millwall – last 6
WDDLLW
10 Oct
@ Preston
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs West Ham
2–2
D
15 Sep
@ Middlesbrough
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Blackburn
1–3
L
8 Sep
vs Newcastle
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Bolton
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Swansea – last 6
WWWLDW
10 Oct
vs Norwich
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Lincoln
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Burnley
3–1
W
8 Sep
@ Southampton
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–0
D
1 Sep
vs Watford
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Swansea.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Millwall vs Swansea?
On our numbers Millwall have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Swansea 34%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Swansea?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Swansea?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Swansea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Swansea?
Millwall vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
