Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
1
Value bet: Stoke City to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMiddlesbrough to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough preview and prediction
The match
Middlesbrough travel to bet365 Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 13 October (20:00 WAT) to face Stoke City. Stoke City are 3rd with 29 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Middlesbrough sit 2nd on 29 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Stoke City's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Bolton 2–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Middlesbrough's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Wolves 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Stoke City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Stoke City and 1.7 for Middlesbrough. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stoke City 35%, draw 21%, Middlesbrough 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Stoke City to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Stoke City 1–1 Middlesbrough. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stoke City35%fair 2.90 · @3.40
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.50
Middlesbrough45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
3.17Expected goals
1.46Stoke City xG
1.71Middlesbrough xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Stoke City 1.5 – 1.7 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Middlesbrough to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough✗
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.18
–
Form
Stoke City – last 6
WWWDWW
10 Oct
@ Bolton
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Sheffield Utd
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Watford
2–1
W
8 Sep
@ Cardiff
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Charlton
4–0
W
1 Sep
vs Norwich
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Middlesbrough – last 6
WDDWLW
10 Oct
vs Wolves
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Birmingham
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Millwall
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Norwich
4–3
W
8 Sep
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ QPR
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stoke City and Middlesbrough.
What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Stoke City have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Middlesbrough 45%.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Our predicted score is Stoke City 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at bet365 Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
