Championship · England · Cardiff City StadiumCardiff vs Watford prediction & analysis
Cardiff or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cardiff to win @ 1.67 – our chance 66% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cardiff 1.9 – 0.7 Watford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cardiff are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Watford.
Cardiff have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Watford have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for Cardiff, 0.7 for Watford). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Cardiff or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cardiff to win at 1.67 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cardiff to win ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cardiff or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Half-time result | Cardiff ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cardiff / FT Cardiff ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.97 | – |
Form
Cardiff – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Blackburn | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Bolton | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Stoke City | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Portsmouth | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ QPR | 1–2 | L |
Watford – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Burnley | 0–4 | L |
| 18 Sep | @ Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Preston | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ West Brom | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Sep | @ Swansea | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cardiff and Watford.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cardiff vs Watford?
Our pick is Cardiff or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cardiff vs Watford?
On our numbers Cardiff have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Watford 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff vs Watford?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Cardiff vs Watford?
Cardiff vs Watford (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.