The Premier League sees Newcastle take on Arsenal on Saturday 21 November, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at St. James' Park. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Arsenal sit 1st on 27 points (top of the table). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Newcastle's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Fulham 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Arsenal's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Hull City 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arsenal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Newcastle and 1.7 for Arsenal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newcastle 16%, draw 23%, Arsenal 61%.
Safer route: Arsenal or draw (84%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Prediction
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newcastle16%fair 6.08 · @5.50
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @4.10
Arsenal61%fair 1.64 · @1.57
2.54Expected goals
0.80Newcastle xG
1.74Arsenal xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Newcastle 0.8 – 1.7 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Newcastle
Arsenal
Attack vs Premier League average
-7%
+12%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
-47%
Our expected goals here
0.75
1.61
Our own ratings from every Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win
61%
1.64
1.57
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
84%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.44
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.47
–
Form
Newcastle – last 6
DLLWLL
7 Nov
@ Fulham
1–1
D
2 Nov
vs Everton
0–1
L
29 Oct
@ Everton
1–3
L
25 Oct
@ Crystal Palace
2–0
W
17 Oct
vs Aston Villa
0–1
L
12 Oct
@ Coventry
1–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
WWWDWD
7 Nov
vs Hull City
1–0
W
4 Nov
@ Slavia Praha
2–1
W
1 Nov
@ Liverpool
1–0
W
27 Oct
@ Fleetwood Town
1–1
D
24 Oct
vs Everton
2–0
W
21 Oct
@ Bayern München
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Arsenal.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arsenal 61%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Newcastle vs Arsenal (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
