The Premier League sees Chelsea take on Leeds on Saturday 21 November, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are 5th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Leeds sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Chelsea's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Sunderland 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Leeds's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Tottenham 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Chelsea arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Chelsea 6–3 Leeds.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.6 for Chelsea and 1.1 for Leeds. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chelsea 52%, draw 24%, Leeds 23%.
Safer route: Chelsea or draw (77%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Chelsea or draw – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Chelsea 1–1 Leeds. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chelsea52%fair 1.92 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.60
Leeds23%fair 4.27 · @4.10
2.64Expected goals
1.57Chelsea xG
1.07Leeds xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chelsea 1.6 – 1.1 Leeds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Chelsea
Leeds
Attack vs Premier League average
+28%
-21%
Goals conceded vs average
+11%
-28%
Our expected goals here
1.40
1.06
Our own ratings from every Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Chelsea or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leeds 23%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Leeds?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Leeds?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 1–1 Leeds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Leeds?
Chelsea vs Leeds (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
