Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Brighton to win @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrighton to win ✓51% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Sunderland vs Brighton preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Sunderland take on Brighton on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadium of Light. Sunderland are 19th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Brighton sit 2nd on 22 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sunderland's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Manchester City 3–5 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brighton's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Arsenal 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.5 for Sunderland and 2.2 for Brighton. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 66%.
Value angle: Brighton to win at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sunderland 1–2 Brighton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sunderland27%fair 3.67 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.30
Brighton51%fair 1.96 · @2.25
3.70Expected goals
1.55Sunderland xG
2.15Brighton xG
66%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
2–27%
2–16%
1–36%
0–26%
From our goals model: Sunderland 1.5 – 2.2 Brighton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✓
51%
1.96
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.67 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Brighton ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✗
32%
3.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.29
–
Form
Sunderland – last 6
LWLWDW
20 Sep
@ Manchester City
3–5
L
16 Sep
vs AZ Alkmaar
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Arsenal
0–2
L
8 Sep
vs Hull City
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Brentford
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Fulham
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Brighton – last 6
WWWDLW
19 Sep
vs Arsenal
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Manchester United
3–2
W
13 Sep
@ Coventry
5–0
W
5 Sep
vs Leeds
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Chelsea
3–4
L
27 Aug
vs Tromso
4–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sunderland and Brighton.
What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton?
On our numbers Sunderland have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Brighton 51%.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Brighton?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our predicted score is Sunderland 1–2 Brighton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Sunderland vs Brighton?
Sunderland vs Brighton (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium of Light.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
